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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still