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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."